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bitcoin (BTC) hodlers may need to triple their on-chain losses for the price of BTC to reach a macro lower.

According For market research firm Baro Virtual, the 2022 bear market is not yet tough enough to match historical bearish trends.

Bitcoin losses total “only” $671 million

With analysts predicting a return to $14,000 or lower for BTC/USD, where Bitcoin will bottom is one of the hottest topics in the space this month.

For Baro Virtual, which analyzed data from the on-chain analytics platform whale mapit can be simple arithmetic.

Taking Whalemap’s Moving Profit and Loss (MPL) figures for on-chain BTC trades, he noted that in the past, macro BTC prices occurred once the losses from those trades equaled or exceeded the equivalent profits in the bull run that preceded them. .

In other words, the chain losses must be equal to or greater than the chain gains of the previous bull run. Otherwise, in most cases, Bitcoin fell again later.

“Whalemap’s monthly MPL makes it almost certain in most cases to determine the global bottom of $BTC,” Baro Virtual wrote in the November 22 Twitter comments:

“The condition is that the current loss level must be equal to or > the maximum profit level of the previous bull run.”

Current realized losses are therefore not large enough to accommodate Bitcoin’s historic capitulation trend, he argued, leaving the door open for further BTC price capitulation.

The amount needed, however, could mean that the ultimate macro bottom for Bitcoin is well below this week’s two-year low of $15,480.

“Now the losses are $671 million, and the previous maximum profit is $1.3 billion to $1.7 billion,” the thread continues alongside an annotated chart:

“Thus, losses of $629 million to $1.029 billion are still missing to confirm full capitulation.”

Annotated Bitcoin Moving Profit and Loss (MPL) chart. Source: Virtual Baro/Twitter

BTC targets 80% drawdown

The findings complete a narrative that also suggests that the 2022 bear market has yet to rival 2014 and 2018 – years that saw macro lows in BItcoin’s previous two. halving cycles.

Related: GBTC next black swan BTC price? — 5 things to know about Bitcoin this week

Compared to the last all-time high in November 2021, BTC/USD has so far managed to drop 77%, less than previous bear markets.

Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode nevertheless shows how Bitcoin is gradually return in a new test of maximum losses against all-time highs.

BTC/USD decline from all-time highs chart. Source: Glassnode

Similarly, the percentage of all BTC currently held in profit is near, but not quite, at lows synonymous with macroeconomic lows.

% bitcoin supply held in profit chart. Source: Glassnode

“Bitcoin’s 78% drop over the last year is the biggest since 2017-18 and at 376 days is now the 2nd longest, after only the 410-day drop of 2013-15,” Charlie added. Bilello, founder and CEO of Compound Capital Advisors. Noted this week.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed herein are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.